After (almost literally) no American sports Thursday, it sure is nice to back in the baseball streets. An upset, a slight favorite, and a low-scoring affair awaits!
Play 1: Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants -- Rockies moneyline (+143) Caesars
These odds are wrong. I honestly believe the Rockies should be the favorite tonight, and I have two reasons for it: Pitching and hitting.
How's that for #analysis?
The Rockies are pitching Cal Quantrill, who has shined -- especially by Coors Field standards -- in his first season in Colorado.
At home, he's giving up a .331 wOBA -- which is exactly what he's giving up on the road. And most of his other home/road splits are more or less the same. Bottom line: Coors Field doesn't seem to have much of an effect on Quantrill, and the reason is almost certainly because he's found a way to keep his sinker down in the altitude.
In fact, 85% of Quantrill's repertoire consists of the sinker, the cutter, and the splitter.
And the Giants projected lineup just doesn't seem particularly well-suited to hit any of those pitches, the sinker specifically.
Over the last two seasons, only LaMonte Wade Jr. has had any real success against the pitch (a .220 ISO).
Quantrill is no one's idea of an ace, but he's having success in Coors Field, and for pitchers, that's a monumental victory.
Meanwhile, lefty Kyle Harrison will be on the mound for the Giants, and the Rockies actually line up very well against him. Harrison's throws his main pitch -- the four-seamer -- over half the time, and over the course of the last two years, seven of the nine projected batters for the Rockies have ISOs north of .180 against the pitch and wOBAs north of .313.
There's really nothing that points to Harrison keeping the Rockies off the basepaths.
Of course, the Giants are a better team, and anything can happen in Coors, but I love the +143 odds and that's where I'm landing.
Play 2: Oakland A's vs. Los Angeles Angels -- A's moneyline (-110) ESPN BET
This looks like another mispriced line to me, as the A's are facing Griffin Canning, who has been absolutely horrendous this season. The numbers point to one major change in Canning's fortunes: His K rate.
Last season, Canning struck out 26% of batters faced. This year, that number has plummeted to 15.6%. Meanwhile, his walk rate has crept up to 8% from 6.4%. The rest of his numbers are mostly in line, but clearly he's putting more balls in play and walking more batters.
This plays into the high-strikeout and not-so-patient A's lineup. While the last sentence is true -- the projected lineup has six batters with a 25% or more strikeout rate over the last two seasons, with only three batters with walk rates above 7% -- it probably doesn't matter against Canning.
Also, let's remember this loosey-goosey A's team is coming off a 18-run outburst against the Phillies.
Meanwhile, JP Sears is pitching for the A's. He's dominant against lefties, but hittable against righties. Luckily for him, there's not a ton of dangerous bats in the Halos lineup. In fact, there's not one batter with an ISO higher than .190 against Sears' main offering, the four-seam fastball.
These are two not-great teams, but I'll take the flashier offense and the objectively better pitcher at home all day long.
Play 3: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers -- under 7.5 runs (-105) DraftKings
Outside of a blippy performance a few weeks back against the Angels in which he gave up five earned runs, Detroit Tigers righty Jack Flaherty is having a super-awesome campaign.
To wit: In the other five starts sandwiched around the Angels game, Flaherty pitched 28.2 innings, giving up two earned runs, 13 hits, walking six and striking out 31.
Not too shabby.
Tonight, he faces the Blue Jays, a team that has a lot of trouble with the slider, which Flaherty throws nearly a third of the time.
Yes, the Blue Jays have some big-name bats, but Flaherty keeps the ball on the ground and the big boppers -- Vlad Guerrero, George Springer, and Bo Bichette -- all are ground ball hitters to begin with.
Nothing, in short, is terribly scary in the Blue Jays lineup.
Meanwhile, Chris Bassitt will face a lousy Tigers lineup, and it's a lineup that has all kinds of trouble with Bassitt's main pitch, the sinker.
Bassitt has some trouble with lefties, but is more or less unhittable -- a .034 ISO -- against righties.
The Tigers will probably send three lefties to the plate tonight, and none of them have shown any success against the sinker.
All told, the under seems like the play.
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