ESPN College Basketball Analysts
Mar 20, 2024, 08:00 PM
It's fewer than 24 hours until the NCAA men's college basketball tournament tips off and March Madness begins in earnest, with the first game scheduled for 12:15 p.m. ET on Thursday. In the days since the bracket was revealed, ESPN's team of analysts -- including Jeff Borzello, Myron Medcalf, Joe Lunardi, John Gasaway, Paul Hembekides and Keith Lipscomb -- has been tirelessly dissecting the bracket and producing tens of thousands of words to help you be smarter and more informed about filling out yours. But as time gets short, do you have time to read it all? Probably not. But don't worry, that's why cheat sheets were invented.
Below, you will find all the answers you need as you construct a winning entry into Tournament Challenge, your office or family pool, or shooting for Gregg Nigl's unofficial record of best bracket ever. If you want to dig in more, follow the link to each individual column, but if all you need are the takeaways, this cheat sheet has you covered.
Jeff Borzello's Instant Bracket
Borzello predicts a score for each matchup and advances them through a bracket. If it plays out this way, here are Jeff's predictions for the Final Four and the national championship.
No. 1 (East) UConn defeats No. 2 (West) Arizona
No. 1 (South) Houston defeats No. 3 (Midwest) Creighton
UConn defeats Houston for the title
Joe Lunardi's Bracket Guide
Joey Brackets and his team identified strengths, weaknesses and that one thing that might allow each school to survive and advance, and gave each team a final ranking. Here is the top 10.
(1) UConn Huskies
(1) Houston Cougars
(2) Arizona Wildcats
(2) Tennessee Volunteers
(2) Iowa State Cyclones
(6) Texas Tech Red Raiders
(5) Gonzaga Bulldogs
(9) Michigan State Spartans
(1) Purdue Boilermakers
(2) Marquette Golden Eagles
... Wait a minute. Where's (1) North Carolina? They weighed in at No. 17 in the field.
Medcalf's guide to all 68 men's teams
Myron Medcalf was among the first to react to the bracket release with his 68-team guide to the field. In it, he provided a "ceiling" for each team in the tournament. Here's how he grouped the top contenders.
The National Championship Contenders
(1) UConn Huskies
(1) Houston Cougars
(1) Purdue Boilermakers
(1) North Carolina Tar Heels
(2) Tennessee Volunteers
(2) Arizona Wildcats
(3) Kentucky Wildcats
(3) Creighton Bluejays
Other Final Four contenders
(2) Iowa State Cyclones
(2) Marquette Golden Eagles
Elite Eight contenders
(3) Baylor Bears
(4) Auburn Tigers
(4) Duke Blue Devils
(4) Alabama Crimson Tide
(5) Gonzaga Bulldogs
(5) Saint Mary's Gaels
(7) Washington State Cougars
(8) Utah State Aggies
Sweet 16 contenders
(3) Illinois Fighting Illini
(4) Kansas Jayhawks
(5) San Diego State Aztecs
(5) Wisconsin Badgers
(6) BYU Cougars
(6) Texas Red Raiders
(6) South Carolina Gameco*cks
(7) Florida Gators
(8) Florida Atlantic Owls
(9) Michigan State Spartans
(10) Colorado Buffaloes
(10) Nevada Wolf Pack
(12) James Madison Dukes
(12) McNeese Cowboys
(12) Grand Canyon Lopes
Giant Killers
No bracket is complete without some upset picks. John Gasaway and Keith Lipscomb reveal what our College Basketball Power Index identified as the most likely upsets, defined as a team beating an opponent with at least a five-seed advantage.
No. 11 New Mexico Lobos vs. No. 6 Clemson Tigers
No. 11 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 6 South Carolina Gameco*cks
No. 12 James Madison Dukes vs. No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers
No. 12 Grand Canyon Lopes vs. No. 5 Saint Mary's Gaels
No. 12 UAB Blazers vs. No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs
No. 12 McNeese Cowboys vs. No. 5 Gonzaga Bulldogs
No. 11 NC State Wolfpack vs. No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders
No. 13 Samford Bulldogs vs. No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks
No. 11 Duquesne Dukes vs. No. 6 BYU Cougars
No. 14 Morehead State Eagles vs. No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini
Paul Hembekides's 10 rules everyone should follow when filling their men's bracket
You're almost ready to put it all together. Before you do, here's some quick trends you need to make sure you pay attention to.
Advance one First Four team to the round of 32
Do not predict a 16-over-1 upset
Predict at least one 12-over-5 upset
Eliminate at least one No. 2 seed prior to the Sweet 16
Advance at least one double-digit seed to the Sweet 16
Advance at least one team seeded 5 or lower to the Elite Eight
Do not advance a double-digit seed to the Final Four
Advance no more than two teams from the same conference to the Final Four
Pick a No. 1 seed to win the national championship
But don't pick UConn to do it.
Upset Alert! How 11-seeds have become the new 12s
It may still be wise to take a 12-seed if you like the matchup, but Keith Lipscomb broke down the data to find out that: "After failing to win a first-round game just three times in 30 years, No. 12 seeds have been shut out in three of the past eight tourneys."
If you're looking for bracket facts to latch onto when making your picks, try these on for size: Only the 1 through 4 seeds have more Sweet 16, Elite Eight or Final Four appearances than No. 11s in the 68-team era (since 2011). Yes, really. Five times in this span of 12 tournaments, multiple 11-seeds advanced to the Sweet 16, something that hadn't been done since 1985 prior to that.
